John M. Itty
General Secretary, Christian Peace Conference
- India
India
The demise of the cold war and the bipolar
world order offers some degree of relief to nuclear risk in the world.
However, the relief is found more in Europe; and post-cold war period creates
more fears about nuclear war in Southern Asia.
Compared to the cold war period, the risk
in Asia is more today due to various reasons. In the first place,
limited arsenals under the possession of the players here might generate
more risk. Whereas the US and the Soviet Union accumulated huge stock of
arsenals, the nuclear powers in Asia have only limited stock. Till
all of them feel that they have built up adequate stock, they will not
be willing for effective arms reduction treaties.
Secondly, the regional competition in
South Asia consists of two dyads - India versus Pakistan, and China versus
India - and one triangle. This together with previous collaboration
between China and Pakistan against India frustrates the possibility of
any meaningful treaty. The need for a three cornered interaction
makes a triangular effort at nuclear risk reduction difficult. The
existence of a line of control between India and Pakistan and between India
and China; and active military presence on the borders is the third factor
frustrating the situation. Compared to this, in Central Europe, there was
no "line of actual control." The boarders of these countries are
scenes of frequent military patrols.
Unilateral actions to improve command
and control and cross border monitoring are essential to avoid nuclear
risk in these areas. Negotiations for confidence building measures
are the means to save this situation. But, unfortunately, the summit
between India and Pakistan ended without any silver line on the horizon.
This situation is bound to develop further rivalry between the two countries
involved, posing greater nuclear threat in the subcontinent.
This situation is a cause of concern for
the whole of Asia. End of the cold war is only relief to Europe;
and the new era would convert Asia into the scene of greater nuclear threat.
Therefore, the people and countries of Asia have to realize this situation
and create public opinion and propose programmes for reducing nuclear risk
in Asia.