"The world has never in this decade been so close as not to the brink of nuclear war."  Viktor Chernomyrdin, May 27, 1999
 
        Russian top officials issued these explicit threats during the United States/NATO bombing of Yugoslavia--yet the bombing continued.  Millions of people worldwide feared imminent nuclear war.  The cessation of bombing has only quieted these fears.  Below are four reasons we may yet see nuclear war in 1999.

U.S./NATO LEADER “WAGS THE DOG”
     During 1998 President Clinton threatened or ordered bombing attacks on Iraq, Sudan and Afghanistan that coincided with initial allegations of adultery, his admission of adultery, the House of Representatives’ vote on impeachment and the televising of Juanita Broaddrick’s credible allegation that Arkansas Attorney General Bill Clinton raped her in 1978.  Although Clinton escaped impeachment, he continues to face jeopardy: leaked FBI files that he had raped three other women and assaulted a number of others; reporters hounding these women to speak out; federal investigators interrogating former Clinton business partners and Chinese government-linked campaign contributors; the Congressional report on Clinton’s laxity in stopping Chinese government spying at U.S. weapons facilities; reports that Clinton allowed China to legally import nuclear weapons manufacture equipment.
      Clinton doubtless saw  a double benefit in warring against Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic–he could distract the press and public from his scandals and create the historical legacy of a great leader in wartime. Despite military and CIA warnings that bombing Serbia would drive Serbs to expel hundreds of thousands of Albanians from Kosovo and kill thousands more, Clinton ordered the bombing.  Serbia responded as predicted. Yet most Clinton news stories now focus on his role as military leader of the humanitarian effort to help Kosovo’s Albanians.  Clinton’s wagging the dog has destabilized the area and enraged Russia, which still has 7000 plus nuclear weapons on intercontinental missiles, mostly pointed at the U.S.  (The U.S. has over 8000 missile-launched nuclear weapons.) We don't know how many more nations Bill Clinton may feel the need to bomb before he leaves office January 20, 2001.
 
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND MILITARY PROBLEMS
     The Russian economy is a shambles, dominated by a few politically-adroit bankers and a huge class of criminals who plague honest businesses; government, businesses and individuals rely heavily on bartering goods and services.   Government services regularly fail to pay employees, pensioners, military officers and conscripts–even those who control its nuclear weapons.  Russia’s conventional forces and weapons are deteriorating and its armies are poor and hungry; only its massive arsenal of 7000 plus nuclear weapons poised for delivery gives it military credibility.
      The Russian people have been infuriated by NATO attacks on their longtime friend and ally Yugoslavia.  Thousands have demonstrated in the streets; one group attempted to launch a grenade attack against the American embassy.  Russia is promising humanitarian aid to Serbia and sending spy ships to the Adriatic ocean off Albania. Russians are volunteering to fight on the Serbs’ side. Besides the warnings above, Russian Premier Boris Yeltsin has threatened to re-target nuclear weapons on Europe and brought out plans for its thousands of battlefield nuclear weapons.  Russia, China, India and other nations are discussing banding together against the U.S. and NATO in new security alliances. Authoritarian and ultra-nationalist leaders, both communist and fascist, promise Russians that if elected in the year 2000 they will right the economy and punish NATO and U.S. aggressors.

U.S. AND RUSSIAN NEAR-ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WARS
      The U.S. and Russia both have a nuclear policy of “launch on warning.”  This means that less than 15 minutes after detecting a possible missile attack, their militaries must launch all 15,000 plus nuclear weapons or possibly loose them to a first strike by the other side.  U.S. leaders have less than 15 minutes to decide if satellites and warning systems are detecting a real attack or merely detecting an innocent phenomena, including a minor glitch in one of hundreds of computers or thousands of software programs. As we shall see, Russian leaders have even less time.
       In the last 30 years there have been several incidents which would have led to nuclear war had not clear thinking human beings decided the warning systems were in error.  In 1979 a nuclear war simulation tape in a NORAD computer was interpreted to be a real nuclear attack and for 6 minutes emergency preparations for nuclear retaliation were made until the error was discovered.  In 1980 a flawed 64-cent chip in telephone switching hardware at NORAD started sending alarming messages to U.S. command centers that a nuclear attack was under way. Defense Department memoranda and a General Accounting Office report have described numerous data, equipment, and software errors in missile warning systems over the last two decades.
       In 1983, a Russian  satellite interpreted sun glare off clouds as a U.S. nuclear attack and only a lower officer’s decision the U.S. had no reason to attack prevented him from reporting such an attack.  In the closest call with disaster, in January, 1995, Russian President Yeltsin was alerted after radar detected an unexpected scientific missile launch and was close to a decision to launch when the missile went out to sea. It was discovered military leaders had failed to pass on Norway’s alert that it would be launching a scientific satellite that day.
        Today Russia has only three operational satellites and an outdated ground-based radar system which together fail to cover all possible missile entry routes from land and sea.  This makes the Russian military and leaders particularly paranoid and gives them as little as 5 minutes to decide if they are under nuclear attack and launch missiles.  Any international situation which makes the Russians or U.S. nervous makes it more likely that the next missile warning error will send 15,000 plus nuclear weapons aloft.

Y2K INCREASES CHANCE OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR
        On January 1, 2000 a large portion of Russian satellites and tracking devices may go down for days, weeks or months because of Year 2000-related computer problems; so may their already shaky command and control and communications systems.  Those of the U.S. also may be compromised to a lesser extent.  Both sides probably will experience a number of false warnings of nuclear attacks.  Recognizing this problem, Russia and the U.S. were working on a missile-warning plan that would reassure both sides that an attack was not underway.  However, after the bombing of Serbia, angry Russians vowed not to cooperate with the U.S. Without such cooperation, unsure of how their computers will function after January 1st, and watching NATO and American troops fighting Serbs and Russians in Kosovo, both sides’ militaries could be tempted to pursue a first strike against the other’s military targets before January 1–a Y2K “use it or lose it” strategy.  Even as we resolve continuing tensions with Russia over the bombing and the occupation of Yugoslavia, there possibility of nuclear war remains unless all nuclear weapons are de-alerted and the launch on warning strategy is abandoned.