[Briefing Room header]


December 9, 1998

PRESS BRIEFING BY DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL GENE SPERLING

3:50 P.M. EST





                           THE WHITE HOUSE

                    Office of the Press Secretary
______________________________________________________________
For Immediate Release                          December 9, 1998     

	     
                         PRESS BRIEFING BY 
              DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL
                            GENE SPERLING
	     
                        The Briefing Room     

	     
3:50 P.M. EST
	     
	     
	     MS. WEISS:  Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.  Gene 
Sperling will give a readout of today's Social Security meeting since 
it was closed to all of you. 
	     
	     Mr. Sperling.
	     
	     MR. SPERLING:  Let me just give a sense of what today 
was like and then I'll be available for any questions.  As you know, 
yesterday we had three panels that you saw were very well balanced in 
terms of differing views with participation from the audience who, 
themselves, were largely made up of heads of organizations and 
experts.  And then yesterday afternoon from 3:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m., 
we had a breakout session in which members of the administration and 
Congress were divided up into six groups and had informal 
conversations which went quite well and were notable for the degree 
of varying interest in the rooms that were able to talk about in a 
way people thought was productive and civil.
	     
	     This morning, we did something that was quite novel, 
which was that a month before the legislative season even began, we 
asked each of the leaders, Speaker Designate Livingston, Majority 
Leader Lott, Leader Daschle and Gephardt, to choose 12 people, and we 
would choose 12 people, and we had 60, then, participants who were 
divided into two groups of 30.  Each of those groups of 30 then went 
through two sessions.  One was led by Bob Reischauer, as you know is 
formal Congressional Budget Office Director, and Martin Feldstein at 
Harvard University did the presentation on the different mechanisms 
for pre-funding or investing in higher returns, either through more 
collective or individual approaches and then a second panel or second 
workshop was coordinated by Ken Kies, the former staff director of 
the Joint Tax Committee, and Bob Greenstein, who is head of the 
Center for Budget and Policy priorities, who went through the more 
traditional Social Security reforms options -- issues such as 
retirement age, cost-of-living increase.  All of the presenters were 
chosen for balance and were asked to work with each other over the 
last couple of weeks.

	     After that, all 60 of the people met at the Blair House 
with the President, and had a meeting that went for, I would say, 
over an hour.  Let me try to give you a little flavor of each of 
those meetings without -- and I know this may make things hard -- but 
to honor the ground rules, without attributing specific 
remarks to specific members of Congress.  I will try to give you 
a sense of what the President himself said.

	  In the first issue, there was significant discussion 
about the different types of plans, I think because our two 
presenters each have options out in the public view.  Marty 

Feldstein has a plan, as do Bob Reischauer with Henry Aaron in 
their new book.  So, clearly, as that discussion went on, some of 
the discussion focused on the pros and cons of their different 
plans.

	  Other issues that came up involved issues concerning 
the surplus -- how much of the surplus would be available, how 
much should be used, could be used.  In the other discussions 
there were also questions about the long-term projections, issues 
related to administrative cost on individual accounts -- whether 
or not individual accounts could be bequeathed in the case of 
somebody passing away.  
	  
	  On the Reischauer discussion, there was much discussion 
on the corporate governance issues -- was it possible to make 
collective investment by Social Security independent, and protect 
it from the political process?  Those were among the things that 
were discussed in the earlier sessions, and I'm happy to go back 
and go over that.

	  The President then met with everyone at the Blair 
House.  It was a very candid conversation and there was, I 
thought, a remarkable amount of goodwill and bipartisanship.  
People felt that the effort this morning of bringing everybody 
together had been, as one key member called it, "a sign of real 
momentum."  
	  
	  There was an agreement to have some bipartisan effort 
to put together paper that could be -- and briefing materials and 
pros and cons of the different plans so that each member could 
get some similar material and that people could be getting 
brought up to speed on materials that they could discuss with 
each other, so the President, himself, suggested this and we will 
be getting together, the staff, the administration, and House and 
Senate to come up with the paper. 
	  
	  Secondly, there was an agreement to do more of the type 
of meetings that we had today, which would be to bring a 
significant number of people together with balanced experts, 
presenting for it, and will be discussing the timing of going 
forward on those meetings.  There was also significant discussion 
on what form of process could ultimately be best to lead to a 
decision.  
	  
	  I thought that the discussion was very productive.  
People had differing views, but I think  if you were there, you 
would have felt that the differing views being expressed were 
truly tactical and there was not a sense of game-playing.  As you 
know, some people have proposed the President put out a plan 
soon, a specific plan.  Others encouraged the President to try to 
come up with a smaller process eventually that would allow for a 
bipartisan plan to come forward.  Still others suggested a series 
of consultations that would allow the President to work with some 
of the key committee people, so, as one person said, it would be 
something the President was pushing, but it would have enough 
fingerprints from both Democrats and Republicans that nobody 
could walk away from it.  
	  
	  I cannot tell you that anything was resolved in terms 
of what the exact process was, but I thought that many positive 
ideas were discussed.  There were different views on how quickly 
and whether the President should put forward a plan.  There also 
was agreement that we both had to broaden out and bring more 
people into the process, but that at some point in the process 
smaller groups had to emerge who were capable of sitting and 
working down through the details.
	  
	  I will say again, the prospect or the occasion in 
December, a month before the beginning of legislative process on 
a key issue like Social Security, to have this many members of 
Congress, Democrat and Republicans, come here, many of them 
travel from out of town just for this meeting, for really a 
packed house of complete, full participation with the President 
in this kind of four or five hour session I think was very 
significant.  And I think to the degree that people felt that 
there was starting to be some polarization among some of the 
outside groups and interests, I think everybody felt that this 
was a positive bit of momentum for the notion of getting this 
done, working in a bipartisan and civil way, and trying to be 
able to have discussion and disagreements without some of the 
harshness and politics that have too often characterized the 
Social Security debate in the past.
	  
	  Q    Are you able to say now, having gone through the 
day, whether the main obstacle -- or maybe you can proportion 
them -- will be actually figuring out the nuts and bolts of a 
plan, or getting through the political obstacles that you just 
talked about?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  I think the clear answer is both.  I 
think that -- I think both are going to be a challenge.  A lot of 
the people tried to -- in the session with the President, several 
of the senators tried to express that while some of the 
differences seemed large, that in fact there was more agreement 
than people might see.  There was very large agreement on the 
importance of dealing with the issue quickly.  There was 
substantial agreement to the notion that there should be some 
effort to bring higher returns into the Social Security system.
	  
	  In, for example, the meetings with Reischauer and 
Feldstein, they were both emphatic on the notion that Social 
Security needed to have higher returns.  And as some people 
pointed out, what you really have is a very strong, significant 
disagreement that exists on how to pre-fund for higher returns, 
whether it should be done more collectively or individualized; 
and that people of good faith should be able to get together and 
to argue through those things.  And even one of the people who is 
the absolute strongest proponent of individual accounts, a Senate 
Republican, who argued that he felt that at the end of the day 
that would prevail, was very forthcoming in suggesting that 
people like himself should be willing to sit down and listen and 
look at the Reischauer-Aaron plan and others and talk through the 
different issues. 
	  
	  So I think that a lot of work still needs to be done by 
people in looking for the type of approaches that could bring 
people together.  I think this is the normal part of a process.  
People are putting out specific plans, they're putting out their 
ideal plan and they're laying markers and they're laying out 
ideas. 
	  
	  Now the legislative process starts, and that requires 
not just the President, but members of both parties to start the 
effort of looking for what might bring enough people together so 
that you could get bipartisan majorities in both Houses.
	  
	  Q    Are you looking toward getting something done by 
the State of the Union message in terms of a plan out there?  And 
what effect would an impeachment vote have, a vote for 
impeachment have on this bipartisanship that you have seen today?

	  
	  MR. SPERLING: On your first point, in terms of what we 
want to do by State of the Union, the President, in virtually 
every meeting that he's had with congressional leaders has tried 
to encourage as much meetings and conversation and consultation 
as possible before the State of the Union.
	  
	  To be perfectly honest, there is a little bit of being 
on different clocks here.  The normal process for members of 
Congress -- and I don't say this in the slight bit to be critical 
-- but the normal congressional process is not to be in town that 
much between now and the State of the Union, and, yet, for us, we 
would like to have as much engagement as possible by the State of 
the Union; that clearly gives the President more information so 
he has a greater sense of how he can use the State of the Union 
to bring people together.
	  
	  So I think, obviously, that will be a very big question 
for us is how much engagement we can have before then, and 
obviously, how the President uses the State of the Union process.  
I felt like, when we left there, that we would be trying to get 
back together with this group for a similar meeting prior to the 
State of the Union.  And there was discussion of each of the -- 
the people there, going back to their respective leaders and 
talking about, at the appropriate time, how both to broaden the 
process -- bringing more people in -- but how, also, at least 
some point down the road, to allow for smaller groups to start 
working together on hammering out specifics.

	  Q    On the first question, about a vote for 
impeachment -- would that destroy the bipartisanship that you now 
have?

	  MR. SPERLING:  You know, that is a question that I 
think other people, members of Congress, would have to answer.  
All I can say is that, for us, we go on with the business of 
government.  We go on with the business of public policy.  We go 
on with the business of dealing with issues like Social Security 
and education, that we know the American people care about and 
elected us to deal with.

	  And as long as we continue to have these critical 
priorities the country cares about, we're going to keep working.  
We are going to keep reaching our hand out to Democrats and 
Republicans, to deal with issues like Social Security.  And all I 
can say is, from our point of view, there is nothing that is 
going to get in the way of us working in a bipartisan way to try 
to deal with the Social Security issue.

	  Q    Gene, a number of the Republicans that came, 
including Mr. Archer, put great stress on this, that the 
President said he would be willing to put forward a specific plan 
if that were decided that would be the thing to do.  They seemed 
to draw the impression that he had moved somewhat toward that.  
Did he move somewhat toward committing to do that or not?

	  MR. SPERLING:  What he said was that he would do -- 
what the President said and, I think, where there is a lot of 
agreement between us and Chairman Archer, is that the President 
is not challenging others to come first or asking, for example, 
the Republicans to come first with a plan.  He understands the 
political difficulties involved.

	  He said very explicitly he's in a second term, he's the 
President, he understands that he needs to provide the political 
cover to anybody who is willing to come together and be part of a 
bipartisan plan.  And he said he would do whatever would be most 
effective in leading to a productive process that would lead to 
bipartisan legislation.
	  
	  He said that if he believed -- and there was real 
consensus that him putting forward a plan at some point was the 
best way to go forward, he was willing to do that.  I think the 
discussion showed today that there was some disagreement about 
that.  I would say probably at least half, if not more, of the 
people who spoke today encouraged the President to try to work in 
a bit more of a bipartisan way in coming forward with ideas.
	  
	  They were concerned that the President, by putting out 
a specific plan, might actually encourage people to just -- to 
polarize instead of come together.  I spoke -- I had a good 
chance to speak one on one with Chairman Archer yesterday.  I 
spoke to him.  I think he is completely sincere.  I think he 
wants Social Security reform done.  I believe he wants to work in 
a bipartisan way.  I think that what we may have is some tactical 
disagreement as to what's the best way to go forward.
	  
	  I think what he really wants is he wants a plan that he 
can work in his committee and so that we're really moving forward 
and that this doesn't just go on at a discussion forum endlessly.  
Many other people who spoke thought that it might be more 
productive to try to have a different way of putting a plan 
forward. 
	  
	  But, again, I really believe these are tactical 
differences.  I believe Chairman Archer is dealing in good faith 
with us and would like to get Social Security reform done this 
year.
	  
	  Q    Gene, you said that there was substantial 
agreement on the need for higher returns.  Would it be fair, 
then, to say that that reflected the view of the administration 
officials who were there that most of them are in substantial 
agreement with that --
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  Yes.  Yes, and I think there's no 
question -- what the President said was that he felt that there 
was growing agreement that in some way or another, one wanted to 
bring higher returns for the Social Security system.  What he did 
say was he thought that as this discussion carried forward that 
policy makers like himself had to be very straightforward with 
the American people about what the risks are with seeking higher 
returns, but that he felt and that many of the people there felt 
that overall, particularly when compared with the alternatives, 
that seeking some strategy to bring in higher returns through 
investment would be a good way to go.

	  Let me repeat:  The President did say today, and has 
said in the meetings with his economic and Social Security team, 
that he believes we should be looking for ways to get higher 
returns into Social Security.  What the mechanism is for doing 
that, obviously, remains a controversial issue, but I do believe 
there is a growing consensus, which the President is part of, 
that we do need the type of investment options that would bring 
higher returns to Social Security.

	  Q    Are you talking about within the existing tax 
structure?  Are you talking about, as Gephardt said outside, an 
additional tax-advantage optional plan, to invest in the private 
sector?


	  MR. SPERLING:  I actually wasn't speaking one way or 
the other on the issue you're talking about, which is whether 
there should be some form of individualized account.  In the 
discussion today with Bob Reischauer and Martin Feldstein, they 
were both arguing for higher returns.  Martin Feldstein was 
suggesting that individuals should make that investment and his 
argument was largely because he felt that gave people greater 
sense of individual control, avoided politicalization of 
investment.  Bob Reischauer argued that, when the collective, the 
government, through a Social Security Reserve Board, does it, 
there's lower administrative costs, which saves money for people, 
and that it makes it easier to smooth out good and bad years.

	  That is very much the heart of a lot of the debate 
going forward.  But again, there's a lot of agreement within that 
debate.  The agreement is prefunding for higher returns and new 
investment options.  And I think there's also a growing -- I 
thought throughout the conference there was -- I don't want to 
say unanimous view, but I thought there was a growing consensus 
that, in some way or another, the surplus that we've reserved 
should be part of the solution and that, with the surplus and the 
possibilities for higher returns, we increase the chances of 
having a Social Security reform package that keeps a strong 
standard of living for America's senior citizens and could be 
politically palatable enough to pass.

	  Q    You said the surplus would be part of the 
solution.  The President said a while back, arguing against tax 
cuts this year -- once Social Security gets done, then, he seemed 
to suggest, he might favor tax cuts.  Are you saying that, in 
fact, maybe the idea is to take this surplus and future surpluses 
and cure Social Security that way, in which case there wouldn't 
be any surplus ever for a tax cut?

	  MR. SPERLING:  I think what the President believes is 
that some portion of the surplus will be necessary for a 
bipartisan Social Security plan.  How much of that is yet to be 
determined.  The President's view was, until we know, we should 
reserve 100 percent of it for Social Security.  If we are able to 
come up with a solution to Social Security that does not use all 
of the surplus, then our view has been that there should be a 
serious national discussion about what best should be done with 
that surplus.

	  We have not suggested it should just go to one thing.  
I think the President has certainly said -- and he said in this 
meeting -- that, certainly, Medicare was a critical issue of 
which one had to consider for use by the surplus.  Certainly 
other issues that are arguments that people have made have 
certainly been for tax cuts.  Also, some people have talked about 
the remaining surplus being used for military readiness, and 
others for priorities like education.

	  So, all I'm saying is, our position is all of the 
surplus should be reserved until we know how much is needed to 
fix Social Security.  Not just hypothetically to fix Social 
Security, but how much will actually be needed for a bipartisan, 
acceptable plan that will pass.  If there's remaining surplus, 
surplus is left, I think that there will be a debate about 
whether it should go to just debt reduction, Medicare, military 
readiness, education, or tax cuts.

	  Q    What you call "surplus" is simply masked now by 
the trust account of Social Security --


	  MR. SPERLING:  No -- the point you're making is, over 
the next several years, the overwhelming majority of the unified 
surplus comes from excess Social Security payroll taxes.  So one 
of the strongest arguments for why the unified surplus should be 
reserved for Social Security, at least until we have fixed it, is 
that so much of the surplus actually comes from Social Security.

	  As you spread out your long-term projection, more and 
more of the surplus comes from non-Social Security issues, but 
certainly, some may argue that all of the surplus that comes from 
Social Security should be reserved just for Social Security.

	  Q    Did you hear that argument today?

	  MR. SPERLING:  I did not hear that argument so much 
today, but I have certainly heard it when I have done forums 
around the country, and I think there are certainly people who 
would make that argument.  I'm sure that will be a serious 
argument.

	  Q    How would you characterize the discussion of 
raising the age eligibility and also lifting the cap, the $68,000 
cap on collecting taxes?

	  MR. SPERLING:  Both of those -- let's see.  Bob 
Greenstein presented the retirement age issues, and Ken Kies 
presented the issues of raising the wage base -- let me make 
clear, that does not suggest either of them was for that, that 
was their assignment.  I would guess that Ken Kies is not wildly 
excited about that idea, although I really don't know his full 
view.  They were presenting -- there were very strong 
presentations in the group that I was in.  There was not as much 
back and forth on that.  I think people commented on the fact 
that the statistics shown today showed that a very large number 
of Americans are now retiring at 62 or before 65.  Only 30 years 
ago, only about 10 percent of Americans retired at 62; now it is 
close to 60 percent -- or at least retired enough to take their 
early Social Security retirement.
	  
	  Some of the people there were engaged in the 1983 
reform.  In my group, Bill Archer was there, Jack Lew; both were 
involved in '83.  We talked about it some.  But I did not get a 
sense of how many people in the room supported or opposed either 
of those options.  The issues presented on the raising of the 
wage base are that it now covers about 86, 87 percent.  That's 
going to continue to go down.  
	  
	  One of the options that's been on the table is to 
either stabilize that or to increase it to 90 percent.  That 
obviously would make more revenues available for Social Security, 
but it comes at the cost of raising the taxes paid by more upper 
income wage-earners. 
	  
	  Q    Can you just clear something up?  When you say 
some strategy for seeking higher returns, just to be clear, are 
you saying the President endorses using some portion of Social 
Security taxes to invest in markets, whether the government 
invests it or whether individuals invest it?  That's clearly what 
you're saying.
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  With the caveat that he has not made any 
final decisions, I think that the answer is yes, that in some 
form or another, that is at least where he appears to be strongly 
leaning at this time.

	  
	  Q    Question?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  The question was, in some form or 
another was the President supporting some form of investment in 
markets for Social Security.  And I said with the caveat that he 
has not made any final decisions, he certainly seems to be 
leaning in that direction.
	  
	  Q    Is he leaning away whether it's to government 
investing a portion of the money or individual accounts?  Does he 
have any preference with regard to those?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  Those are good questions and I think 
that's going to be one of the issues that is maybe the single 
most contentious issue in whether or not we get Social Security 
reform.  And at this point, I think the President feels that it 
would be best for him to stay open-minded and to try to work with 
both sides and see if we can start to find some common ground.
	  
	  Q    Specifically, how did the President indicate today 
that he was interested in the question of higher returns?  If 
he's leaning, how did he tell them that?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  Well, what happened was one of the 
members spoke and I believe yesterday, in fact, Rick Santorum, I 
believe, in his opening remarks talked	 about that ultimately 
you have to raise revenues, raise taxes or raise returns.  Those 
are the three options.  And you could kind of argue there's a 
fork in there which is use of the surplus which doesn't require a 
change of law to raise additional, but it would be allocating 
surpluses there. 
	  
	  But when the President spoke, he said that he realized 
that there may need to be some tough choices that need to be 
made, but that of the three main options presented, certainly 
most people understood they were trying to find a responsible way 
to raise returns, would be the most attractive to most of the 
American public and to most members of Congress.  
	  
	  He also said, though, that he felt people would have to 
be straightforward in discussing the risks, which is that there 
are years where the market -- there have been years where the 
market has not performed as well.  People would have to 
understand in any plan that while, over any 30 or 40-year 
measure, even somebody who invested in the stock market in 1928 
ends up being a winner, that returns over a 30-40 year period 
almost always out-performed any other investment option, that 
there have been period of several years where the market has not 
performed as well and there is volatility there, and that we 
would have to be straightforward when talking to people and 
saying that on the whole, our analysis shows this is the right 
thing to do, a good way to get higher returns, but to make sure 
that the public fully understood what the risks entailed in doing 
so were and why we had decided that they were risks worth taking.
	  
	  Q    Can I follow up?  Is the President persuaded that 
following this path is the answer to the insolvency question or 
just one ingredient, maybe the politically appealing ingredient 
to solving the insolvency question?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  I think that if you look at Social 
Security reform options four years ago versus now, I think 
there's no question that the stronger fiscal situation we're in, 
the ability to have unified surpluses certainly makes the options 
less politically painful for members to vote for, and most 
importantly, allow for options that keep the standard of living 
for most senior Americans or people who will be senior Americans 
strong.
	  
	  So I don't think we've expressed a view yet and will 
for a while as to how much of the solution can come from use of 
the surplus or higher returns versus other more traditional 
Social Security options.
	  
	  Q    Are you concerned that by saying this today, 
though, that you are in some way raising expectations about this 
being the magic solution?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  No, because I think that we've also made 
clear that there are other issues that need to be dealt with, 
such as Medicare, which is also a long-term entitlement problem 
that affects senior Americans.  And I've mentioned other issues 
that clearly people in the policy arena in Washington and most 
importantly in the public care deeply about, from tax cuts to 
military readiness to education and training, to those who favor 
more debt reduction.
	  
	  So, remember -- I think there are always two issues 
which is, how much of a surplus can you use and how much should 
you use in light of what you think it could be used for and the 
alternative.  I think you will find that a lot of people's 
opinions on what should happen to the surplus are affected by 
what they think will happen in the alternative.  Somebody today  
-- one of the experts today said that if they thought that all of 
the surpluses would be used for debt reduction, they might have 
different views on what they thought should be done for Social 
Security since they felt less confident that the money would be 
saved in a responsible way, they felt saving it for Social 
Security or a large amount was not only good for Social Security, 
but would also lead to higher national savings than the 
alternatives where the money would not be saved in one form or 
another.
	  
	  Q    Gene, when you talk about there was agreement that 
you would continue to pre-fund Social Security, does that mean 
that you've ruled out going back to a pay-as-you-go system?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  I don't -- I think under any 
circumstance you're not going to be -- I think what you're 
talking about, and let me make clear on this -- I think people 
are moving towards more of a partially pre-funded system.  Social 
Security is and will be a largely pay-as-you-go system.  Right 
now, I believe around 85 cents on the dollar go to pay existing 
benefits.  So you're largely dealing in pay-as-you-go world.  	 

	  But, look, the way Social Security works is -- a pay-as 
-you-go system works is, if you are one of the first people in a 
pay-as-you-go system, you're doing great, because in the end 
you're getting a benefit that's based on a 35 or 38-year work 
life and you may have only worked 10 or 15 years.  Then the 
system matures and people have worked a full career and they're 
getting a full benefit.  And that system can stay stable for a 
while in a pay-as-you-go, as long as there is the same number of 
workers supporting the same number of retirees, assuming they're 
having relatively the same amount of productivity.
	  
	  A pay-as-you-go system is essentially a commitment by 
one generation to pay for its parents and grandparents' 
retirement on the promise that the next generation will pay for 
theirs.  What we have now is a situation where the next 
generation will not have as many workers per beneficiary, per 
retired person -- for two reasons; because of the baby boom and 
because people are living longer and working a smaller portion of 
their life.
	  
	  In that situation a pay-as-you-go system loses its 
stability and then the rational thing to do is to start trying to 
save more.  So essentially what you're talking about is having 
partial pre-funding to make up for -- to deal with the fact that 
20, 30, 40 years out there is only going to be two workers for 
every beneficiary.
	  
	  Q    Well, what does that then do in terms of your need 
for more money to do that?  Because, after all, in 2012 or 2013, 
you're going to start dipping into this trust fund and then it 
will be -- you'll be paying out more benefits than you will be 
collecting in taxes.  So what does that do for --
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  You still have a Social Security trust 
fund right now in which even though in 2013, the amount of 
payroll tax comes in is not enough anymore to meet the benefits 
going out, you have accumulated interest savings in the Social 
Security trust fund, they keep you going until you're around 
2021, and then you start redeeming bonds until 2032.  That's when 
the trust fund runs out.

	  Now, because of the stronger fiscal situation we're in, 
right now our projections show that, for at least a few decades, 
the government can both pay back the Social Security trust fund 
what it owes and still have a surplus on top of that.  So we're 
in a very different fiscal situation than we were fix or six 
years ago.  Now, when someone says, how can you make the Social 
Security Trust Fund real up to 2032, projections show you can not 
only pay back on the IOUs in the Social Security trust fund, but 
you have a surplus on top of that.  So we're in a very different 
situation.

	  At some point, however, I think both CBO's and OMB's 
long-term forecasts show a surplus running out.  So it can't be 
the answer forever, but it can be part of the solution now.

	  Q    In the discussion over who does the investing, the 
government or individuals, was there any discussion about the 
distributional aspects of one plan or the other?  What was the 
tenor of that discussion, and was there any movement on that 
issue?

	  MR. SPERLING:  There was a little discussion with the 
President.  I have to say, I was in one of the panels -- I was in 
one of the groups, not the other.  In the discussion with the 
President, there was certainly one Senator who spoke about the 
importance of having a beneficiary impact statement, that any 
plan would need to look at what the impact was on women, on 
lower-income Americans, and -- but I think your question is a 
good one.  I do think that the debate right now may be getting so 
much into the mechanism of how to do the investment that people 
are maybe short-cutting the debate on what impact it has on the 
actual people.  And I think it would be a very good thing if 
there was more analysis where people looked at particular plans 
and said, How do those plans affect different people in different 
situations?

	  We did talk -- in Bob Greenstein's presentation, he did 
talk about the problem with single, elderly women, particularly 
widowed elderly women -- why the system may not be working as 
well for them in reducing poverty, and the fact that there were 
policy solutions that could be part of Social Security reform 
that could deal with that issue.

	  Q    Gene, Gene -- do you want to follow?
	  
	  Q    Yes, I do --
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  This politeness, I don't know if I can 
handle it.

	  Q    It's not the usual crowd.  (Laughter.)  What does 
that mean --

	  MR. SPERLING:  Never sit in the front row.  (Laughter.)

	  Q    What does that mean for which way you'll go?  I 
mean, I assume that means if you're going to be even distribution 
or better-than-even distribution -- better than the same 
distribution, you will have to go toward a government-sponsored 
investment plan as opposed to individual investments.  Is that 
right?

	  MR. SPERLING:  I don't think that's a simple question 
where there's a simple answer.  I think that, on most issues, on 
most things, it depends a lot on how you devise it -- whether 
there's guarantees for programs -- what the distribution is like.

	  For example, I'll give you -- for those who favor 
individual accounts, and again, I'm not expressing our view -- 
for those who favor, there are certainly some that are more 
progressive than others.  One that gives everybody a flat amount 
-- so whether you make $20,000 or $80,000, you still get several 
hundred dollars, the same amount -- is obviously going to be more 
progressive for a lower-income person than one that just takes a 
percentage of income.

	  So I think within any system there are probably ways 
that you can design it so that it can be more progressive or less 
progressive, and I think that is one of the issues that you'll 
see when people start putting out more specific plans.  But 
again, while there seems to be a rather -- a time-simple debate 
between whether you do pre-fund collectively or individualized -- 
within those options are a lot of design choices and a lot of 
different ways you can splice it, that can have a large effect on 
the distributional impact.

	  Q    Gene, why weren't Livingston and Lott there, and 
does it matter for the White House that they weren't?

	  MR. SPERLING:  We were very happy with the 
participation today.  Obviously, it would have been nice to have 
had both of them, but the fact was, each of them was asked to 
designate 12 people; they each did; they each participated by 
sending outstanding people there.  And clearly, some of the 
people that they've designated to be some of their point people 
speak -- Livingston is Speaker-designate now.  He may feel some 
discomfort about appearing in the role of the Speaker before he's 
actually Speaker.  And again, he's going through a transition.

	  So I do not assume anything bad about that at all.  The 
important thing was -- I don't know the exact title you're 
supposed to use these days -- but Speaker-designate Livingston 
cooperated with us, chose excellent people to participate.  And 
so we were very happy.  It would have been nice to have him, but 
we were very happy with his participation.

	  Majority Leader Lott sent Senator Santorum and Judd 
Gregg, who are the two people he's used in the past as his point 
people on Social Security.  In addition, we had Pete Domenici and 
Phil Gramm, who are putting out their own plan now.  So you 
really had a significant number of the Social Security 
heavyweights from both parties, with the full cooperation of the 
Republican and Democratic leaders.  So I look very favorably on 

the participation and the willingness to cooperate of all of the 
leaders.

	  Q    Should we look for the President maybe to go 
somewhere in between actually going to a full-blown plan and the 
five points he's talked about today.  Is that maybe an interim 
ground that we might expect, such as touching on some of the 
areas that you kind of talked about today?

	  MR. SPERLING:  I really am not in a position to say.  I 
can tell you the type of discussion that we have internally a lot 
and will continue to have.  And what was helpful today was that 
so much of our discussion has often been internal, just because 
of the season.  Now, to have 50 of the key members of Congress 
around giving their input, does give us a lot better sense of 
what type of thing would move forward.

	  The more we can have these types of discussions and 
meetings, the better position the President is in to know what 
types of steps would be unifying as opposed to polarizing.

	  Q    Gene, speaking of polarizing, there are a number 
of interest -- interest groups seem to be digging in their heels.  
Two major ones came up last week.  Do you think now that some of 
the key players are starting to come together, the interest 
groups will come along?  Or might they be disruptive to the 
process and might still push for full privatization or no change 
at all?
	  
	  MR. SPERLING:  I think that it's understandable that 
people with strongly-held views want to put out strong positions, 
and many times they want to do that not because that's where they 
think the end product has to be, but they want to express their 
views strongly and they want to move the center a little more 
towards their way.  Our hope would be that while people are 
strong in their views that they allow this debate to have some of 
the civil and bipartisan tone it did today.  
	  
	  I'll tell you, in the breakout groups yesterday people 
were really struck by some of the terrific discussion that went 
on between some of the members who were from -- some of the 
interest groups were strongly for just collective investment 
versus private accounts.  People thought it was a very productive 
and civil debate.  And there's nothing wrong with people having 
strong opinions, and not everybody has to believe, as we do, that 
we should try to find a way to come to a bipartisan Social 
Security reform, but the President has spent over a year saying 
that we should try to derail this third-rail mentality that 
exists for Social Security.  And to the degree that everybody 
could participate in that form of discussion, I think it will 
dramatically increase the chances we can do some good for the 
country.
	  
	  Thank you.

             END                      4:31 P.M. EST


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