WPCR 2BVT Z Courier New (TT)?xxx,nXx6X@DQX@HP DeskJet 60024HPDES600.WRSx  @0,,4{ @2@P#|x MARCH, 1995 ARIAS F 3<) 3 O 3 UNDATION BORGE & ASSOCIATES REPUBLIC OF HAITI NATIONAL SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION 1.  3Introduclio 3 Introduction 3  3n In March, 1995, the Arias Foundation for Peace and Human Progresscontracted Bor 3e 3 g 3 e & Associates to conduct a public opinion poll inHaiti. This national poll is the first of its kind in Haitianhistory, and was conducted during a time of national political 3u 3 tr 3 ansition. The events surrounding the survey were: --The recent restoration of the civilian government, followingthe multinational invasion led by the United States. The invadingtroops remain in the country. --A lack of activity on the Dart of the Haitian army, which hasserved as the principal political actor in recent years.  3  --Th 3r: 3 e 3  initiation of campaigns for upcoming legislative electionsin June, 1995 --The upcoming presidential elections, to be held in November1995, in which current President Jean-Bertrand Aristide cannot bere-elected. The Arias Foundation for Peace and Human Progress is a non-profitorganization. The Foundation's goal is to contribute to theconstruction of just and peaceful societies in Latin America,with specific emphasis on Cen 3u` 3 tr 3 al America and the Caribbean. 1987Nobel Peace Laureate Oscar Arias S 32i 3 a 3 nchez used his Nobel prizeaward to found the Arias Foundation. The Center for Peace and Reconciliation is one of three centersthat constitute the Arias Foundation. One of the Center's currentprojects is to promote human development in Haiti; the surveydiscussed in this  3repo 3 report 3  3n was commissioned as a part of thisproject. The purpose of the survey was to encourage Haitians toconceptualize possibilities of s 3u 3 tr 3 uctural change that couldstrengthen democracy in their nation in an era of politicaltransformation. Borge & Associates is a public opinion research and politicalconsulting firm with broad experience in Latin America and theCaribbean. They have conducted surveys in nine Latin Americannations; they have also advised 16 pre-electoral and  3electoralcampaign 3 electoralcampaigns 3  3s. Borge & Associates has also conducted surveys duringtransition periods in Panama (after the fall of General ManuelNoriega), Nicaragua (after the electoral defeat of theSandinistas), and El Salvador (following the implementation ofthe peace accords). "h)0*0*0*1"ԌBetween March 17 and 24, 1995, 1200 Haitians over 17 years of agewere interviewed for the survey. The margin of error isapproximately three percent. The Haitian Statistics  3Insitute 3 Institutes 3  3s1995 population estimate by  3deparnnenr 3 departments 3  3s and communes was used asthe general framework. Although the survey was national in scope, it did not cover theoutlying rural and deep rural areas, as most such areas areinaccessible by automobile. According to our experience in LatinAmerica, these areas indicate a higher percentage of illiteracy,less  3knowlede 3 knowledge 3  3e of political affairs, and less electoralparticipation. Questionnaires were provided in both Creole and French. Surveyparticipants were asked to respond in their preferred language. The survey was designed by Victor Borge. Field work was directedby Fer 3 n 3 ando Chavarria and Oscar Borge. Poll takers were recruitedin Port-au-Prince. All poll-takers were bilingual (Creole-French)and were high school  3graduale 3 graduates 3  3s. The Arias Foundation counterpartwas Ms. Lina Barrantes, who assisted in designing the researchprogram, as well as in the logistical aspects of the project. A summary of the main results of the survey follows below. Formore detailed results, please refer to the complete  3repo 3 report 3  3n, wherethe principal variables are compared to sex. age, income,educational level, and region. For the purposes of the survey, the country was divided into fourregions: West, North,  3Cenlra 3 Central 3  3l, and South. "0*0*0*0" -2 2. National Situation Haitians are almost unanimous in their perception of poverty andunemployment as national problems (questions 1323). The secondgroup of problems prioritized by respondents refers to theexistence of armed groups of civilians, paramilitaries of the oldregime, and the army. Finally, education, corruption, and theadministration  3ofjustic 3 of justice 3  3e are also considered to be importantproblems. Democratic participation, however, is not perceived asan important problem, perhaps because the Haitian people feel 3tha 3 that 3  3r they now live in a democracy. Summary of data: Please indicate which of the following are problems in Haititoday: Description Affirmative response Poverty 97% Unemployment 96 Armed civilians 87 Attach 3C 3 e 3 s 86 Tonton Macoutes 85 Military 74 Education 85 Corruption 84 Administration of Justice 79 Democratic participation 47 Respondents indicated that the most important problem (question2) was the economy. Fifty-five percent of respondents respondedwith the following distribution: What do you consider to be the most serious problem in Haititoday? Cost of living 24% Unemployment 13 Economic situation 12 Misery 4 Hunger 2 Also mentioned were: Personal safety 23% Political problems 1 Justice 1 Lack of union 1 These two areas are strongly related, as the improvement of theeconomic situation will only be possible if peace andtranquillity are secured in the country. At the  3e 3 c 3 ommunity level,"h)0*0*0*1" the problems perceived as the most important are  3prinlaril 3 primarily 3  3yrelated to the lack of basic services (45% of respondentsreferred to this lack). What is the main problem in your community today? Lack of latrines 9 Lack of plazas and parks 8 Lack of water 7 Lack of electricity 6 Waste disposal 5 Illiteracy 4 Lack of schools 3 Health  3probiem 3 problems 3  3s 2 Drainage 2 Lack of markets 1  3Uncmploymen 3 Unemployment 3  3t 7 "0*0*0*" -3- Suffering 2 Cost of living 2 Corruption 15 Personal security 9 Drugs 2 Haiti has survived a period of profound unrest, including theinvasion of a multilateral force headed by the United States.This invasion restored President Aristide, who had beendemocratically elected, to power. Opinions regarding the cu 3n 3 rr 3 entsituation are generally positive, although only half of Haitianfamilies believe that the situation has improved (question 8). Haiti is on the right path Agree 77% Disagree 9% The situation in the country is better compared to a year ago Agree 75% Disagree 19.6% Today, Haitians live under a system of democracy Agree 67% Disagree 20% It would be very difficult if Haiti were to return to dictatorialrule Agree 60% Disagree 17.80/c Your family's situation is better today than a year ago Agree 49% Disagree 46.1% Respondents were asked to rate the work of the state and of theelectoral process. Only the President received a positive ra 3dn_p 3 ting 3 (questions 9-12). Good Bad Net Result  3Presiden 3 President 3  3i Aristide 54% 4% 50%Electoral Council 12 16 -4Supreme Court 9 38 -29Parliament 8 51 -43 The role of the government is praised in political areas, butpoorly-rated in economic areas. Such descriptions are normal fora transitional  3govemmen 3 government 3  3t,as seen in the Nicaraguan andPanamanian cases. Governments that come to power after a periodof dictatorship or political instability must establish publicliberties relatively quickly. On the other hand, the improvementof the economic situation of families requires much more time.Summary of data (questions 52-60): Governmental performance in: Good Bad Net Result Bringing peace 43% 7% 36Fight against corruption 37 7 30"h)0*0*0*1" Disarming civilians 35 11 24Improving personal security 34 10 24General tasks 26 6 20National reconciliation 29 10 19Helping people like you 15 28 -13Improving the economy 10 26 -16Controlling cost of living 9 44 -35 Only 45% of respondents felt that they were well-informed aboutthe  3govemment 3 government's 3  3s current activities (question 61). The mainsuccesses that they attribute to the government generally fallwithin the framework of politics, such as: democracy, terminationof the army and  3altache 3 attaches 3  3s, peace, reconciliation, disarming ofcivilians, improved security (question 62). " 0*0*0*" -43.  3  Abolition of th 3t: 3 e 3  Haitian Armed Forces Following the restoration of President Aristide's civiliangovernment, the Haitian army was reduced to 1500 men. Soldierswere kept off the streets and  3oflicer 3 officers 3  3s were retired. While thecurrent government is in the process of organizing a new civilpolice force, the possible abolition of the army has become atopic of public discussion. Half of the Haitians interviewed believe that the army hasalready been disbanded. Almost three-quarters of respondents:support President Aristide's move to retire officers, and 62%believe that the disbanding of the army would be a positive move. Summary of data (questions 24-30): Do you think that the army has been disbanded? Yes 49% No36% Was President Aristide right to retire army officers? Yes72% No 14% Would the disbanding of the  3arnl 3 army 3  3y be positive or negative fordemocracy? Positive 62% Negative 12% If the army is disbanded, will the country be better off or worseoff? Better off 53% Worse 3   3 off 16% If the army is disbanded, will Haiti receive more  3intemationa 3 international 3  3laid? Yes 53% No 10% It is also important to note the strong rate of disapproval forthe suggestion of incorporating demobilized soldiers into the newcivil police force. Should the soldiers remaining in the army be transferred to thenew civil police force? Yes 260/0 No 66% 4. Disarming Civilians and Paramilitaries One of the most prevalent issues in Haitian political life is thedisarming of paramilitary groups. Respondents' answers regardingthis matter are very clear (questions 35-42). Hall` of thoseinterviewed believe the paramilitary groups known as  3attachC 3 attaches 3  3s andtonton macoutes no longer exist. However, two-thirds ofrespondents feel that the majority of people still fear thesegroups, and hope that the multinational force will disarm them.Approximately 90% say that the paramilitaries should be disarmedand punished for their crimes. Summary of data: All the attaches and tonton macoutes should be disarmed. Agree"h)0*0*0*1" 90% Disagree 3% The attaches and tonton macoutes should be punished for theircrimes. Agree 88% Disagree 4% The existence of additional armed groups should be prohibited.Agree 84% Disagree 7% The attaches no longer have to function. Agree 810/0 Disagree 13% The majority of people still fear The attaches.  3Agrc 3 Agree 3  3e 6810Disagree 17% The majority of people still fear the tonton macoutes. Agree 67%Disagree 16% " 0*0*0*" -5- The multinational force should disarm the attaches and thetonton macoutes. Agree 66% Disagree 23% The  3atlache 3 attaches 3  3s and tonton macoutes no longer exist. Agree 49%Disagree 32% 5. Justice versus Impunity During the recent military dictatorship, paramilitary groupscommitted scores of human  3rieht 3 rights 3  3s violations. While most Haitianshope for and support national reconciliation, the majority ofrespondents also believe that those guilty of criminal activityunder the military dictatorship should be  3judee 3 judged 3  3d and punished.For the most part, those interviewed support the idea of thecreation of a special commission ( 3CTruth Commission) toinvestigate these crimes (questions 43-48). A special commission to investigate crimes under thedictatorship should be created in Haiti. Agree 89% Disagree 2% The attaches and tonton macoutes should be punished for thecrimes they committed. Agree 88% Disagree 4% The people responsible for crimes committed under thedictatorship should be punished. Agree 87$b Disagree 5% What Haiti needs at this time is reconciliation. Agree 73%Disagree 18% Only the crimes of the dictatorship should be persecuted andpunished. Agree 70% Disagree 20% If the crimes of the dictatorship are pardoned, justice will nothave been done. Agree 51% Disagree 38% All the crimes committed under the dictatorship should bepardoned. Agree 24% Disagree 66% 6. Relations with the Dominican Republic One of the issues mentioned in the discussion of the abolitionof the Haitian army is the need for Haiti to defend itselfagainst the Dominican Republic, Haiti's neighbor on the island ofEspanola. Furthermore, one out of seven respondents indicated that theyhad relatives living in the Dominican Republic (questions 33,34, 49, 51). Two-thirds of those interviewed support freemovement and commerce between the two nations. However, 40% of respondents consider the Dominican Republic anenemy of Haiti. Forty  3D 3 p 3 ercent also believe that the army must be"h) 0*0*0*1" maintained in order to protect Haiti against a Dominicaninvasion. It is important to note that the Haitian army was unable to haltthe recent invasion of the multinational force; in fact, theHaitian armed forces opted to allow the invasion without firing asingle shot. However, 40% of respondents still feel that thearmy should be maintained so as to protect Haiti from invasionfrom any other country. The strong support for free trade may lead to an easing of fearsre 3_garding the Dominican Republic. Summary of data: Are you in favor of a border of free movement and  3u 3 tr 3 ade betweenHaiti and the Dominican Republic? Yes 66 3'i/o 3 % 3  No 23% Do you believe that the Dominican Republic is an enemy or anally of Haiti? Ally 38% Enemy 40% Don't 3   3 know 22% "H 0*0*0*" -0- The army must be maintained in order to protect Haiti from aninvasion by the Dominican Republic: Agree 40%  3Disagrc 3 Disagree 3  3e 43% The army must be maintained in order to protect Haitian  3Cro 3 From 3  3m aninvasion by any other country: Agree 40 3 % 3  Disagree 42% Do you have relatives in the Dominican Republic? Yes 1444 Don'tknow 6% If the army is disbanded, will Haiti be more secure or lesssecure? Less secure 26% More secure 39% The questionnaire contained two separate questions with distinctwording regarding the abolition of the army (questions 32 and39). Sixty percent of respondents responded positively to one ofthe questions. However, when asked explicitly if they supportedthe abolition of the army. 49% responded positively. When analyzing these data, it is important to remember that fullyhalf of respondents believe that the army has already beendisbanded. It is also important to note that, now  3r 3 t 3 hat the armyis not functioning, the graver problem is the armed civilians andparamilitaries. Strong suppo 3n 3 rt 3  exists for the abolition of thearmy. This support will increase as the disarming of civiliansand paramilitaries is completed. Should the army be legally prohibited? Yes 60% No 24 3ro 3 % 3  Do you believe that the Haitian army should be eliminated? Yes49% No 33% 7. Upcoming  3Legislativ 3 Legislative 3  3t: Elections Respondents were questioned about the legislative electionsplanned for June, 1995 (questions 12, 72, 77). Only 58% of thoseinterviewed think  3tha 3 that 3  3l they will vote in these elections.Seventeen percent do not plan to vote, principally because theydo nol believe that legislative representatives defend theinterests 3; of the people. Do you plan to vote in the next  3iegislativ 3 legislative 3  3e elections? Yes 58% No 17% Almost eight out of ten respondents supported the presence ofinternational observers at the elections. Do you consider the presence of international observers at thenext legislative elections very important, not very  3imponan 3 important 3  3t, ornot important at all? Very important 78% Not very important 7  3Notimportan 3 Not important 3  3t 2 "h) 0*0*0*1"ԌThe above responses may be due to the negative image of theSupreme Electoral Council. Twelve percent of respondentscharacterized the Council's work positively, 16% negatively, and33% as normal. Suppo 3n 3 rt 3  for political parties is as follows: FNCD 23% LAVALAS 17 Others 10 Don't know/none 50